The Playbook

Investing in the Picks and Shovels of AI (Blackstone, November 2023)

November 1, 2023

Article examines how the real beneficiaries of the AI revolution may not be software companies but the builders of its underlying infrastructure — from semiconductors and data centers to power and connectivity. The paper highlights how AI’s rapid expansion is driving a new, capital-intensive investment cycle anchored in physical assets. For investors, it underscores that the most durable long-term value may lie in the “picks and shovels” fueling the intelligence economy.

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Good Money

Investing in the Picks and Shovels of AI (Blackstone, November 2023)

November 1, 2023

Article examines how the real beneficiaries of the AI revolution may not be software companies but the builders of its underlying infrastructure — from semiconductors and data centers to power and connectivity. The paper highlights how AI’s rapid expansion is driving a new, capital-intensive investment cycle anchored in physical assets. For investors, it underscores that the most durable long-term value may lie in the “picks and shovels” fueling the intelligence economy.

Investing in the Picks and Shovels of AI: Infrastructure Behind the Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence may be the defining technology of this decade — but the biggest beneficiaries may not be the headline names in AI software or robotics. Like past industrial revolutions, much of the enduring value lies not in the gold rush itself, but in the “picks and shovels” — the enabling infrastructure that powers the ecosystem.

From semiconductor fabs to data centers and power infrastructure, the AI economy’s foundation is being built quietly but aggressively. For investors, understanding where the durable value lies in this buildout will define performance through the next cycle.

Why It Matters

AI models are voracious consumers of compute power and energy. Each new generation of large language models requires exponentially more data storage, bandwidth, and electricity. This demand cascade extends far beyond tech — into industrials, energy, and real estate. As Blackstone notes, AI infrastructure spending is set to rival cloud and mobile booms of prior decades, but with a heavier emphasis on physical assets and capital intensity.

Investor Implications

  • Data Centers: The “new oil fields” of AI. Demand for GPU-dense facilities is pushing up lease rates and capital expenditures. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) specializing in digital infrastructure stand to benefit.
  • Semiconductors and Equipment: Firms like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC remain core enablers, but upstream suppliers — materials, lithography, and cooling systems — may offer overlooked leverage.
  • Energy and Utilities: Training AI models is energy-intensive. Power generation and transmission companies positioned to serve high-load regions (Texas, Virginia, Singapore) are becoming strategic assets.
  • Networking and Connectivity: Fiber-optic networks, satellite links, and cloud interconnect providers are the arteries of AI’s global compute grid.

Risk Assessment

  • Capital Intensity: Infrastructure buildouts require enormous upfront costs. Rising financing rates could strain returns if demand projections soften.
  • Technological Obsolescence: Rapid hardware cycles (GPUs, chips) risk shortening asset lifespans. Investors must assess adaptability and upgrade pathways.
  • Energy Constraints: Power shortages or environmental regulations could delay data center expansion. ESG mandates and carbon costs will shape long-term economics.

Portfolio Positioning

  1. Infrastructure Real Assets – Exposure to digital REITs, energy providers, and logistics firms supplying the AI buildout can provide inflation-hedged growth.
  2. Diversified Tech Supply Chain – Balance pure-play AI names with suppliers of components, tools, and power solutions — the modern “picks and shovels.”
  3. Global Allocation – Look beyond Silicon Valley. Regions with favorable regulation, abundant energy, and stable geopolitics (Nordics, UAE, Texas, Singapore) are emerging as AI infrastructure hubs.

The Bigger Picture

AI is more than algorithms — it’s an industrial revolution in disguise. The next decade’s returns may come not from the flashiest AI startups but from the utilities, engineers, and builders who make intelligence scalable. Just as the railways, steel, and oil companies powered the 19th century’s growth, today’s investors should follow where the digital groundwork is being laid — the unseen infrastructure that turns code into capability.

Sources

  • Blackstone, Investing in the Picks and Shovels of AI (2023)
  • International Energy Agency (IEA), Electricity 2024 Report
  • CBRE, Data Center Market Outlook 2024
  • McKinsey & Company, AI Infrastructure Economics
  • SEMI, Global Semiconductor Equipment Forecast 2024–2026

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