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This report reviews mid-2025 investment conditions, focusing on economics, housing, labor, reserve currencies, AI, cybersecurity, and defense. Tariffs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions have reshaped markets, with retailers and manufacturers warning of higher costs and margin compression. The housing market remains frozen under high mortgage rates, while labor markets show resilience but reveal structural weaknesses, particularly in participation and wage growth. Global reserve diversification toward gold and alternative assets reflects declining confidence in U.S. fiscal leadership. Finally, generative AI is framed as both disruptive and deflationary, reshaping corporate margins and employment patterns. Investors are urged to adopt caution amid volatility
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This paper examines selective exposure to confirmatory information among 400,000 users on StockTwits, analyzing 33 million posts and 14.3 million follower connections.
This essay explores tools available to the U.S. government for restructuring the international trade and financial system, with emphasis on tariffs and currency policy.
The report analyzes U.S. housing market conditions heading into 2025, emphasizing affordability challenges driven by high mortgage rates, limited supply, and sticky home prices.
This paper studies the distribution of long-term stock market returns using data on all common stocks listed on the U.S. market from 1926–2016.
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